FST SignalTerminal
S&P 500: 7,683.69 -0.8%Nasdaq: 26,820.38 -0.9%TSX: 35,490 -0.87%10Y yield: ~5.2%, 19-year highGold: ~$4,150/oz, lowest since Aug 5Brent: ~$98, Iran talks stalledBRK.B $503.09 EnterHD $289.89 Reduce, -12.2% in 20 sessions

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Yields hit 19-year highs, OpenAI's pause rattles chips, gold slides under $4,200 as oil stays hot

Yields hit a 19-year high and OpenAI's training pause rattled chips, gold broke under $4,200 and oil held near $98. Quality and defensives lead the Enter list; chip exposure is held into Micron's print.

BRK.BLLYCATTD.TONEEJNJCVXAMDMUINTCARMUPSHDNKEAMZN
Hiking Fed, 19-year yield high, AI trade shakenCash 30 to 40 percentzeroUpdated 1 h ago

Audio brief

Listen here. Create an account to read the transcript.

Today's September 29 market Brief

1Where Money Is Moving

The market is repricing three things at once: rates that keep rising, an AI build-out with a new safety brake on it, and oil that will not settle while Hormuz talks stall. That combination punishes stretched growth and rate-sensitive cyclicals and leaves health care, staples and energy as the relative shelter. This Brief responds by moving toward quality with visible earnings, holding chip exposure without adding into Micron's print, and treating housing, parcel delivery and richly valued AI licensing as names to watch or trim. Cash posture rises to 30 to 40 percent, up from 25 to 35 percent on 2026-09-25, because the 10-year is at a 19-year high, breadth is weak, and PCE inflation and payrolls land this week.

DateEventSymbols
2026-09-29OpenAI developer conference reported for today; read-through for the AI trade (Investing.com)AMD, MU, INTC, ARM
2026-09-30US PCE inflation report; Micron fiscal Q4 results after the close (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com)MU, AMD, INTC
2026-10-01Nike fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close (Business Wirebusinesswire.com)NKE
2026-10-02US September nonfarm payrolls (Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com)HD, UPS, CAT, TD.TO
2026-10-28FOMC decision, with a hike priced at 70.3% (Yahoo Finance)All fifteen, especially NEE, HD, TD.TO

2Entry Attention

RankCompanySymbolPriceActionPreferred entryHorizonConfidenceScore
1Berkshire HathawayBRK.B$503.09Buy in tranches$497-$505, add toward $4935-10 yrsMedium98
2Eli LillyLLY$1,184.78Buy$1,160-$1,185, add toward $1,1185-10 yrsMedium91
3CaterpillarCAT$819.95Buy$800-$820, add near $7773-7 yrsMedium83
4Toronto-Dominion BankTD.TOC$169.60BuyC$164-C$170, add toward C$1605-10 yrsMedium83
5NextEra EnergyNEE$75.49Starter only, wait for stabilization$75-$76 first tranche, add only above $805-10 yrsLow69
BRK.BBerkshire HathawayENTER

Buy in tranches. Price $503.09, down 0.47% on the day and 0.38% over 20 sessions, holding just above its 200-day average of $497.02 with RSI at 45.27. The FST Classic reading is Hold at one of three: price passes the 200-day test, while RSI is not oversold and the MACD histogram of -0.876 is below its 0.35 neutral band. That is the shape a defensive compounder takes in a rate scare: no panic, no euphoria. The business is a diversified insurer and operating group with a large cash balance that earns more as short-term rates rise, which makes it one of the few large caps that benefits from the regime. Valuation and margin of safety here are qualitative judgements; no multiples were read from the platform today. Risks: a large catastrophe loss year, a weaker equity portfolio mark, and a slow reinvestment pace for its cash. Entry: $497 to $505 straddles the 200-day line and the 50% retracement at $501.69. Thesis breaker: a close below the Bollinger floor near $498 that also loses the 200-day. Bottom line: the best risk-adjusted entry on this list; build the position in thirds.

LLYEli LillyENTER

Buy. Price $1,184.78, up 0.11% on the day, above its 200-day average of $1,071.92 with RSI at 56.04 and the MACD histogram at 6.333. Two of three conditions pass, and the weekly chart shows a 17.9% gain over 20 weeks. Health care was one of only three S&P 500 sectors to advance on Monday (TheStreet), and Lilly is the group's growth franchise, built on its diabetes and obesity medicines. Quality is high on every axis except price: this is a business the market already pays for. Price sits close to the upper Bollinger band at $1,191, so the disciplined entry is the first tranche at $1,160 to $1,185 with room to add toward the 50% retracement at $1,118. Risks: drug pricing policy, competition in obesity treatment, and a stretched multiple. Thesis breaker: a loss of the 200-day average alongside a cut to obesity demand forecasts. Bottom line: the growth quality name that is not falling with the market; buy small and let a pullback do the rest.

CATCaterpillarENTER

Buy. Price $819.95, down 0.20% on the day, up 2.46% over 20 sessions and above its 200-day average of $760.56 with RSI at 51.67 and the MACD histogram at 4.613. Two of three conditions pass. Industrials fell 1.00% on Monday (TheStreet), which gives an entry into a durable equipment franchise on a day when the group was sold. Caterpillar sells into mining, energy and construction, and the AI data center build adds power generation demand; it is also cyclical and its weekly chart is 7.7% lower over 20 weeks, so this is a call on quality at a fair price rather than on momentum. Entry: $800 to $820, add near the lower Bollinger band at $777, just above the recent low of $771.39. Risks: a global capex slowdown, higher financing costs, and tariff exposure. Thesis breaker: a close under $771 with the 200-day average turning down. Bottom line: a cyclical leader bought on weakness; size it below the defensives.

TDToronto-Dominion Bank

Buy. Price C$169.60, down 0.64% on the day and up 0.59% over 20 sessions, well above its 200-day average of C$148.75 with RSI at 51.67. The MACD histogram of 0.109 sits under the 0.35 band, so the Classic reading is Hold at one of three. Canadian financials lagged on Monday as the TSX fell to a one-month low (Investing.com), and this bank has held its trend while peers slipped. The case is a scale Canadian franchise with a large US retail network and a dividend, purchased in a country where rates are higher for longer but credit is not yet cracking. Not researched today: current US regulatory constraints and credit provisions, which are the main diligence items. Entry: C$164 to C$170, add toward C$160, the 50% retracement of the year's range. Thesis breaker: a rising provision for credit losses combined with a break of the 200-day average. Bottom line: a steady income and quality anchor in the Canadian book; buy in tranches.

NEENextEra EnergyENTER

Starter only, wait for stabilization. Price $75.49, down 0.78% on the day and 7.76% over 20 sessions, below its 200-day average of $85.49 with RSI at an oversold 21.48. The Classic reading is Sell at two of three, and this Brief deliberately disagrees at small size. Regulated utilities trade like long bonds, so a 10-year yield at 5.2% is the whole story: the business has not changed, the discount rate has. That is where the discipline says to lean toward buying fear, but a falling knife needs a small position. First tranche $75 to $76, near the 24-hour low of the Bollinger floor at $75.39; add only after the price reclaims the 20-day average at $80.08. Risks: yields keep rising, financing costs for a heavy build-out, and a regulatory pushback on rates. Thesis breaker: a further 10% fall that follows a dividend policy change. Bottom line: a rate-driven oversold quality utility; small first tranche, no averaging down until the trend turns.

3Hold

RankCompanySymbolPriceValuationAdd, Hold or TrimAdd belowHorizonConfidence
1Johnson & JohnsonJNJ$271.95Fair to fullHold$26410+ yrsMedium
2ChevronCVX$206.37Fair valueHold$1915-10 yrsMedium
3Advanced Micro DevicesAMD$607.87FullHold$5563-7 yrsMedium
4Micron TechnologyMU$1,053.98FullHold into the print$9653-7 yrsMedium
5IntelINTC$116.03FullHold, small$1053-5 yrsLow
JNJJohnson & JohnsonHOLD

Hold. Price $271.95, up 0.27% on the day and 1.46% over 20 sessions, above its 200-day average of $239.64 with RSI at 58.10. The MACD histogram of -0.094 is flat, so Classic reads Hold at one of three. Health care was a safe corner on a day when most sectors fell (TheStreet). The company is a diversified pharmaceutical and medical device group with a long record of dividend growth, which is exactly what a rate scare rewards. Valuation is judged fair to full; the stock has risen 20% over 20 weeks. Monitor: talc litigation, drug pricing policy, and pipeline execution. What would turn it into an exit: a break under the 200-day average together with a guidance cut. Add on a pullback to the 50-day average near $264. Bottom line: the defensive core; hold, and add only on weakness.

CVXChevronHOLD

Hold. Price $206.37, up 0.94% on the day and 2.23% over 20 sessions, well above its 200-day average of $184.59 with RSI at 50.86. The MACD histogram of -1.391 keeps Classic at Hold, one of three. Energy was one of three advancing S&P 500 sectors on Monday (TheStreet) with December Brent at $98.58 (Investing.com). Chevron is an integrated producer with a disciplined payout, and it acts as an inflation and geopolitical hedge inside a portfolio. The risk is symmetric: a peace deal that reopens Hormuz would drop crude and the stock. Monitor: oil below $90, capital returns, and project execution. Exit trigger: management drifting from capital discipline while crude falls. Add on a dip toward $191, the 50% retracement. Bottom line: hold the energy hedge; do not chase it into a headline-driven oil spike.

AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesHOLD

Hold. Price $607.87, down 3.61% on the day and up 30.56% over 20 sessions, well above its 200-day average of $384.20 with RSI at 65.62 and the MACD histogram at 11.265. This is a repeat name from the 2026-09-25 Brief, moved from Enter to Hold because the price rose 30% in a month and the AI trade just took a safety shock. The new catalyst is the agreed $8.2 billion all-stock purchase of World Labs (Yahoo Finance), which adds talent and world-model research at the cost of dilution. Monitor: hyperscaler capex commentary after OpenAI's pause, data center share gains, and integration. What would turn it into an exit: two consecutive guidance cuts for data center revenue. Add on a retreat to the 20-day average near $556. Bottom line: a high-quality compute name that is fully priced; hold and let the price come to you.

MUMicron TechnologyHOLD

Hold into the print. Price $1,053.98, down 2.61% on the day and up 12.98% over 20 sessions, above its 200-day average of $672.94 with RSI at 58.35 and the MACD histogram at 8.869. This is a repeat name from the 2026-09-25 Brief, and the reason is a live catalyst: fiscal Q4 results arrive after the close tomorrow. Management guided to revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and adjusted earnings of $31 a share, plus or minus $1 (Yahoo Finance). The stock is up 277% this year and one analyst calls it a teeter-totter quarter, with the fiscal 2027 guide and the timing of Nvidia's next platform the swing factors (BigGo Finance). A binary event with the stock near $1,111, the upper Bollinger band, is not the moment to add. Monitor: the HBM4 ramp and DRAM pricing. Exit trigger: a guidance cut tied to oversupply. Add below $965. Bottom line: keep the position, add nothing before the numbers, and use any post-print drop toward the 50-day average as the entry.

INTCIntelHOLD

Hold, small. Price $116.03, down 5.67% on the day and up 29.69% over 20 sessions, above its 200-day average of $78.77 with RSI at 58.52. This is a repeat name from the 2026-09-25 Brief, and the reason is price: the stock has fallen into the $110 to $120 zone that Brief named for a full-size add. It stays at Hold rather than Enter because the AI trade is unsettled, and the quality case still rests on turnaround execution rather than current earnings power. Monitor: foundry customer wins and yield progress, and whether Monday's drop extends after the Micron and OpenAI events. What would turn it into an exit: a foundry customer loss or a delayed ramp. Add below $105, where the 50-day average and the 38.2% retracement sit. Bottom line: a speculative turnaround that just got cheaper; keep it small and wait for evidence.

4Reduce, Exit, Avoid or Monitor

RankCompanySymbolPriceActionPrimary concernMethodMax waiting periodConfidence
1Arm HoldingsARM$283.33ExitValuation and SoftBank margin loanSell into bounces toward $300-$3102 weeksMedium
2United Parcel ServiceUPS$94.25ReduceBelow 200-day, Sell signalTrim on bounces toward $981 monthMedium
3Home DepotHD$289.89Reduce or monitorRate sensitivity, -12.2% in 20 sessionsHold size, add nothing1 monthMedium
4NikeNKE$36.39AvoidEarnings on Oct 1, deep below trendWait until the print clears1 weekMedium
5AmazonAMZN$246.15MonitorAt its 200-day average, sector weakHold size, act on a 200-day break2 weeksMedium
ARMArm HoldingsEXIT

Exit. Price $283.33, down 8.70% on the day but still up 18.52% over 20 sessions, above its 200-day average of $218.79 with RSI at 51.95. This is a repeat name and a reversal from Enter on 2026-09-22; the reason is valuation rather than the trend. One analyst tool puts the stock 45.5% above its own intrinsic value estimate (GuruFocus), the trailing multiple is above 300 times earnings (TIKR), and SoftBank has a margin loan secured on the shares. Temporary or structural: the licensing franchise is durable, the price is the problem. Bull case: data center CPU adoption. Bear case: forced selling if the loan is called. Reduce into bounces toward $300 to $310. Reverses if the multiple compresses by half or the loan is repaid. Bottom line: an excellent business at a price that assumes perfection; trim.

UPSUnited Parcel ServiceEXIT

Reduce. Price $94.25, up 0.31% on the day but down 10.52% over 20 sessions, below its 200-day average of $102.25 with RSI at 35.77 and the MACD histogram at -0.533. Classic reads Sell at two of three. UPS is tied to industrial and consumer volumes, and both are under pressure with yields at 19-year highs and Discretionary down 1.43% on Monday (TheStreet). Structural or temporary: unclear; no earnings data was read today. Bull case: a dividend and a cyclical rebound. Bear case: volume decline with fuel cost pressure from oil near $98. Trim on bounces toward the 20-day average at $98. What would reverse it: a reclaim of the 200-day average near $102. Bottom line: a weak trend without a catalyst; reduce.

HDHome DepotEXIT

Reduce or monitor. Price $289.89, down 1.13% on the day and 12.21% over 20 sessions, well below its 200-day average of $342.28, with RSI at an oversold 29.18. Classic reads Sell at two of three. Business quality is among the best in this Brief, but its earnings depend on housing turnover and remodeling, which suffer as the 10-year yield stays above 5%. This is where quality and entry attractiveness disagree: the company deserves a long-term place, but the price and the rate trend say wait. Bull case: an oversold bounce and pent-up remodeling demand. Bear case: a further slide to the year's low near $289 and below. Do not sell into oversold weakness; trim only on bounces toward the 20-day average at $306. Reverses if the 10-year yield falls decisively. Bottom line: a quality name in a rate-driven downtrend; hold size and add nothing.

NKENikeEXIT

Avoid. Price $36.39, up 1.79% on the day but down 8.11% over 20 sessions, far below its 200-day average of $49.39. Nike reports on Thursday after the close (Business Wirebusinesswire.com), with consensus expecting revenue of $11.3 billion, down 3.2%, and Greater China forecast to fall 12.6% (Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com). Shares are down about 43% this year. Temporary or structural: the brand is intact, but the turnaround is unproven and earnings consistency is the weak score. Bull case: a low bar and an inventory clean-up. Bear case: another year of falling sales. There is no position to reduce; this is an avoid until the print clears. Reverses on evidence of a sales trough. Bottom line: wait for the numbers; a low price is not a reason to buy.

AMZNAmazonEXIT

Monitor. Price $246.15, down 1.41% on the day and 7.61% over 20 sessions, sitting only 1.3% above its 200-day average of $242.92 with RSI at 41.24. Classic reads Hold at one of three. Communication services and Discretionary were the two weakest S&P 500 sectors on Monday (TheStreet), and Amazon carries both consumer and AI infrastructure exposure. Its business quality is high, which is why it sits in Monitor rather than Exit. The trigger is technical: a close under $242.92 would turn the trend against it. Bull case: cloud and advertising strength. Bear case: an AI capex pause plus a weaker consumer. Hold size and add nothing until the 20-day average near $253 is reclaimed. Bottom line: the best business in this group at the worst technical spot; watch the 200-day line.

5Scorecard

Scores are the Editor's qualitative judgements on a 1 to 10 scale per category, out of 120 in total. They were not computed from reported financial statements, so balance sheet, valuation and margin of safety scores in particular should be verified before acting.

SymbolUndMoatMgmtBSEarnFCFROICGrowValMoSLTCapTotalClass
BRK.B889109976779998Quality compounder
LLY89979899548691Quality compounder
CAT88877787557683Cyclical opportunity
TD.TO87778666768783Fairly valued long term hold
NEE87647446657569Cyclical opportunity
JNJ88899886669893Fairly valued long term hold
CVX87886765667781Cyclical opportunity
AMD77886779547782Quality compounder
MU66784788655474Cyclical opportunity
INTC66664446757566Turnaround
HD98868896557584Cyclical opportunity
UPS76655664555464Value trap risk
NKE88573453545360Turnaround
ARM78785778116267Speculative
AMZN99867668669686Quality compounder

6Master Action Ranking

RankSymbolCategoryActionConfidenceHorizonPrimary reasonMain risk
1BRK.BEnterBuy in tranchesMedium5-10 yrsDefensive quality that benefits from higher short ratesCatastrophe losses or a weaker equity book
2LLYEnterBuyMedium5-10 yrsGrowth quality in the only sector advancing on MondayStretched multiple and drug pricing policy
3JNJHoldHoldMedium10+ yrsDurable defensive with a rising dividend recordLitigation and pricing policy
4CATEnterBuyMedium3-7 yrsDurable equipment franchise bought on a sold sectorGlobal capex slowdown
5TD.TOEnterBuyMedium5-10 yrsTrend held while Canadian financials slippedCredit provisions and US regulation
6CVXHoldHoldMedium5-10 yrsEnergy hedge with oil near $98Hormuz peace deal drops crude
7AMDHoldHoldMedium3-7 yrsCompute share gains plus World Labs dealFull price after a 30% month
8MUHoldHold into the printMedium3-7 yrsMemory pricing power, results due Sept 30Binary event at upper Bollinger band
9NEEEnterStarter onlyLow5-10 yrsOversold at RSI 21 on a yield shockYields keep rising, trend still down
10INTCHoldHold, smallLow3-5 yrsPrice back in the add zoneExecution risk in the turnaround
11AMZNMonitorHold sizeMedium5-10 yrsHigh quality at the 200-day lineBreak under $242.92
12HDReduce or monitorHold sizeMedium3-7 yrsOversold quality, but rates dominate10-year yield above 5.2%
13UPSReduceTrimMedium1-3 yrsBelow 200-day with a Sell signalVolume decline and fuel costs
14NKEAvoidWaitMedium3-5 yrsDeep below trend, print on Oct 1Another year of falling sales
15ARMExitSell into bouncesMedium1 yrValuation and SoftBank margin loanForced selling on the loan

7Forecast Check

Past calls are graded on the record page, never inside the Brief, and the grades there are the only ones that count.

8Today's Action List

12Disclaimer

This Brief is general research, not personalized investment advice. It does not consider anyone's goals, tax position or risk tolerance. Prices are from delayed daily candles and may differ from live quotes. Qualitative scores and valuation labels are the Editor's judgements. Investing carries risk, including loss of capital, and nothing here is guaranteed.

Sources

  1. Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.comcited 3 times
  2. Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.comcited 3 times
  3. Investing.cominvesting.com
  4. Investing.cominvesting.comcited 2 times
  5. TIKRtikr.comcited 2 times
  6. GuruFocusgurufocus.comcited 2 times
  7. Bloombergbloomberg.com
  8. TheStreetthestreet.comcited 7 times
  9. Investing.cominvesting.comcited 5 times
  10. Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.comcited 2 times
  11. Canadian Press via Yahoo Financeca.finance.yahoo.com
  12. TradingKeytradingkey.com
  13. Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.comcited 2 times
  14. Investing.cominvesting.com
  15. CNBCcnbc.com
  16. Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.comcited 2 times
  17. Trading Economicstradingeconomics.comcited 2 times
  18. Business Wirebusinesswire.comcited 2 times
  19. BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
  20. Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com

Need a personalized daily brief?

Create an account, connect your AI assistant, and build your own, on your names and your rules.

Create an account